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"WR2 w/ WR1 upside" Deconstruction

"WR2 w/ WR1 upside" Deconstruction

I've seen in several recent posts or comments describing receivers as a "WR2 with WR1 upside," to which the common frustrated retort is often "just like the other 30" as this description is applied ubiquitously and seemingly without proper analysis. So I chose to do some on my own type of league, which is your standard 12-team PPR. So my conclusions will be based on this context, but tha analysis can be done for leagues of any size.
Here is the table that I made outlining who was a WR1 and a WR2 in each of the first six weeks, and what the points floor was for each tier that particular week.
For example, in week one, a WR1 in a 12-team PPR league would have been one of the 12 receivers who scored 19.6 PPR points or better, and a WR would have been one of the twelve receivers who scored less than 19.6, but at least 15.7 PPR points.
Finally, I noted who was a WR1, WR2, and WR3 by cumulative points scored after 6 weeks.
 
Some initial observations:
  • WR1s each week are scoring at least 20 points, sometimes as low a floor as 18.
  • WR2s each week are scoring at least 14 points, with week 3 having the highest floor of 17. No WR2 on a week is scoring more than 19.
  • Week 3 was weird. Many receivers stepped up a tier, and some of the top-tier receivers fell from grace. Nuk stayed consistent.
  • Week 1 saw the most boom performances among one-hit wonders and boom/busters. Annual PSA that week 1 over-reactions are not to be trusted, especially if they belong to one "Sammy Watkins".
 
These guys are weekly WR1s more than any other sort of performance:
Name Performance PPG
DeAndre Hopkins Failed to hit the WR1 tier in Weeks 4,6 19.8
Calvin Ridley Failed to hit the WR1 tier in Weeks 3,4 20.2
Adam Thielen* Failed to hit the WR1 tier in Weeks 2,3,6 19.8
* - in a tied number of performances, I defaulted to where the receiver stands on the year.
 
These guys are WR1s on the year, either because of team injuries, not hitting bye weeks yet, or through consistency, but have put up WR2 or worse performances more weeks than a WR1 performance. They could end up WR1s for the season if they maintain higher-scoring consistency: - DK Metcalf - Tyler Boyd - Amari Cooper - Tyreek Hill
Sometimes when people say "WR2 with WR1 upside", what they mean (confusingly) is that the player sits in the WR2 tier RIGHT NOW, but could end the year as a WR1. If that is the case, I could see that these players fall into that category (for no reason other than my gut): - Tyler Lockett - Chase Claypool - Tyler Boyd
 
But what I think people really mean when they say "WR2 with WR1 upside" is "This player will put up a WR2 performance most weeks OR sits in the WR2 tier right now, but will put up a WR1 performance some weeks". Instead of blindly listening, I'd like to see what the numbers say those players are.
That being said, in a 12-team PPR league, the following are OBJECTIVELY weekly WR2s (15-19 point average) with occasional WR1 (20+) weekly performances (at least 4 out of 6 games):
Name Performance PPG
Robby Anderson** 1 WR1 game in week 1; 4 WR2+ games 17.2
DK Metcalf*** 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,5; 4 WR2+ games 19.9
Will Fuller IV 2 WR1 games in weeks 4,6; 4 WR2+ games 16.3
Tyreek Hill*** 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,3; 4 WR2+ games 16.5
Stefon Diggs*** 1 WR1 game in week 2; 4 WR2+ games 19.3
Amari Cooper 2 WR1 games in weeks 4,6; 4 WR2+ games 18.3
Accounting for byes/injuries, the following probably belong in this category as well:
Name Performance PPG
Jamison Crowder 2 WR1 games in weeks 1,5; 3 WR2+ games 19.8
Keenan Allen 1 WR1 game in week 3; 3 WR2+ games 15.9
while not objectively weekly WR2s, these players also have half their games in the WR2+ category on the year:
Name Performance PPG
Tyler Boyd 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,3; 3 WR2+ games 14.6
CeeDee Lamb 1 WR1 game in week 4; 3 WR2+ games 16.5
Allen Robinson II 2 WR1 games in weeks 3,4; 3 WR2+ games 16.6
Robert Woods 1 WR1 game in week 3; 3 WR2+ games 15.3
Keelan Cole, Sr. 1 WR1 game in week 6, 3 WR2+ games 13.6
Mike Evans 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,4; 3 WR2+ games 14.5
Chase Claypool 2 WR1 games in week 5; 3 WR2+ games 17.2
Terry McLaurin 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,4; 3 WR2+ games 15.2
and the following are OBJECTIVELY year-to-date WR2s (top 24 PPR) with occasional WR1 (top 12 PPR) weekly performances:
  • Robert Woods
  • Terry McLaurin
  • Chase Claypool
  • Tyler Lockett
  • Tyler Boyd
  • Mike Evans
  • Odell Beckham Jr.
  • Keelan Cole Sr.
  • Darius Slayton
  • DJ Moore
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Keenan Allen
However, with regard to consistency, the following players have shown flashes of WR1 brilliance, but their floors are equally bad, and I'd call them more boom/bust WR1 or WR2s, which is different from a consistent WR2 with WR1 upside:
Name Performance PPG
Odell Beckham, Jr 1 WR1 game in week 4; 2 WR2+ games 14.5
Tyler Lockett*** 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,3; 2 WR2+ games 17.6
Julio Jones*** 2 WR1 games in weeks 2,6; 2 WR2+ games 17.5
Justin Jefferson*** 2 WR1 games in weeks 4,6; 2 WR2+ games 17.0
Russel Gage 1 WR1 game in week 1; 2 WR2+ games 10.0
Darius Slayton 2 WR1 games in weeks 1,5; 2 WR2+ games 13.6
Cooper Kupp 1 WR1 game in week 3; 2 WR2+ games 13.4
DeVante Parker 1 WR1 game in week 4; 2 WR2+ games 12.9
Brandin Cooks 2 WR1 games in weeks 5,6; 2 WR2+ games 12.6
DJ Moore 1 WR1 game in week 2; 2 WR2+ games 13.4
Adam Humphries 1 WR1 game in week 6; 2 WR2+ games 13.3
** - Robby is the definition of WR2 with WR1 upside
*** - These receivers will probably end the season as WR1s with WR2 downside
 
Interestingly, no player was a WR2+ in at least three weeks without also being a WR1 in at least one of them, EXCEPT: Kenny Golladay. He is the only clear-cut WR2 I could find.
Every other WR1 performance in the past 6 weeks was a one-hit-wonder in the WR2+ category, and I considered a one-time boom game. I'm certain (well, at least hopeful) that among those in that category, JuJu, Chark, and maybe Gallup will return in future weeks, though.
 

TL;DR:

The phrase "WR2 with WR1 upside" is largely meaningless without additional context regarding the league type, league size, and weekly or final assessment you are making.
Additionally, there is no guy who is JUST a WR2 right now, except Golladay. Every other WR2 has WR1 upside (and it's likely Golladay does and just hasn't shown it yet), or he is a WR3 with WR2 upside and you're being optimistic about what tier he sits in.
I'd argue that as we extrapolate through the remaining weeks, we still won't find that kind of consistency because football is a volatile game. That said, a few guys who I think might remain in the WR2 tier of weekly performances going forward and still have 2-3 WR1 games remaining in them:
  • Robby Anderson
  • Robert Woods
  • Will Fuller IV
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Keenan Allen
  • Jamison Crowder
I think everyone else either rises or falls to their appropriate tier (and has a fair number of games with that tier's performance) before season's end.
 

Some final notes:

  • Pardon the atrocious coloring.
  • This is, of course, a tiny sample size (i.e. Travis Fulgam is a WR1 in 2/3 of his starts - he has 3 starts. I'm not even considering him for this analysis, but I'm watching)
  • If players were injured for the majority of the first several games, I did not even consider them because there was insufficient data.
  • I recognize that some players have had very respectable floors, and might otherwise be considered a WR2, and I tried to consider that in the "year-to-date WR2" analysis. If their floor was worthwhile, this is where they got their shot. If it didn't put them in this category, then as consistent as they are, then I would call them a reliable WR3 with flashes of brilliance. DJ Chark is in precisely this situation. 10-point floor on the year (except week 5), one WR2+ performance, and will probably do well the rest of the year, but didn't make the discussion this week.
  • This model is purely analytical and in no way speculative, but it has something to say about the nature of speculation. If, in your assessment of a potential breakout candidate, you say he will be a "WR2 with WR1 upside", maybe what you should say is "He'll score 12-18 points most weeks, with occasional 20+ point games", but of course that ties you to numbers and actually says something substantive and might hurt your Reddit ego when you are wrong.
Edit: For a fantastic follow-up to all of this data with next-level analysis that does not depend on this small sample size, check out CoopThereItIs 's comment: https://www.reddit.com/fantasyfootball/comments/jesorwr2_w_wr1_upside_deconstruction/g9gfh6c?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Edit2: Thank you, kind strangers, for the awards! It feels good to have hard work appreciated!
submitted by TirionRothir2 to fantasyfootball

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